Factors Appear Useful in Predicting Gestational Diabetes

Age, BMI, family diabetes history, t-PA, low HDL cholesterol help in first-trimester prediction

FRIDAY, Dec. 3 (HealthDay News) -- Several easily measured demographic and clinical factors, along with two biochemical values, can be used for predicting gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in women in their first trimester of pregnancy, according to research published in the December issue of Diabetes.

Makrina Savvidou, M.D., of the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London, and colleagues analyzed first-trimester data from 124 women who developed GDM and 248 controls who remained free of the condition. The researchers gathered data on a number of demographic, clinical, and biochemical factors in the women. Women underwent screening for GDM during the second trimester.

The researchers found that maternal age, gestational age at sampling, body mass index, race, family history of diabetes, and prior GDM predicted GDM with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.824. Including elevated tissue plasminogen activator and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol improved the AUC-ROC to 0.861.

"Our results suggest further development, and potential clinical application of risk algorithms for GDM in a range of populations, is possible. Such work should therefore be prioritized, especially at a time of rising obesity levels and changing diagnostic criteria for GDM, factors which in combination will substantially increase the number of women with this condition," the authors conclude.

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