Abstract
We use the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool to forecast the 2011-2050 health trends in Milwaukee County. We first simulate a baseline scenario (S-1) that assumes no health behavior change, and compare this with three simulated intervention scenarios: expansion of Quitline reach to enhance smoking cessation (S-2), an increased penetration of diabetes screening (S-3) and construction of additional recreational facilities (S-4). We compared the disease-free life years (DFLY) gained from each intervention scenario by 2050 on a year-by-year and cumulative basis. Simulation results show that increasing access to recreational facilities achieves the greatest gain in DFLYs for every year from 2011 to 2050. By 2050, the cumulative DFLY gain is 22 393, 5956 and 41 396 for S-2, S-3, and S-4, respectively. The cost-effectiveness ratios for Quitline expansion, diabetes screening, and recreational facility construction are $1802, $1285, and $1322, per DFLY gained, respectively.