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Keywords

COVID-19, Neural network, Personal protective equipment, Prediction

 

Authors

  1. Namdar, Peyman MD
  2. Shafiekhani, Sajad PhD
  3. Teymori, Fatemeh MSN
  4. Abdollahzade, Sina MD
  5. Maleki, Aisa
  6. Rafiei, Sima PhD

Abstract

We designed a forecasting model to determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19 among 220 nurses. We used multivariate regression analysis and different classification algorithms to assess the effect of several covariates, including exposure to COVID-19 patients, access to personal protective equipment, proper use of personal protective equipment, adherence to hand hygiene principles, stressfulness, and training on the risk of a nurse being infected. Access to personal protective equipment and training were associated with a 0.19- and 1.66-point lower score in being infected by COVID-19. Exposure to COVID-19 cases and being stressed of COVID-19 infection were associated with a 0.016- and 9.3-point higher probability of being infected by COVID-19. Furthermore, an artificial neural network with 75.8% (95% confidence interval, 72.1-78.9) validation accuracy and 76.6% (95% confidence interval, 73.1-78.6) overall accuracy could classify normal and infected nurses. The neural network can help managers and policymakers determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19.