Abstract
We designed a forecasting model to determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19 among 220 nurses. We used multivariate regression analysis and different classification algorithms to assess the effect of several covariates, including exposure to COVID-19 patients, access to personal protective equipment, proper use of personal protective equipment, adherence to hand hygiene principles, stressfulness, and training on the risk of a nurse being infected. Access to personal protective equipment and training were associated with a 0.19- and 1.66-point lower score in being infected by COVID-19. Exposure to COVID-19 cases and being stressed of COVID-19 infection were associated with a 0.016- and 9.3-point higher probability of being infected by COVID-19. Furthermore, an artificial neural network with 75.8% (95% confidence interval, 72.1-78.9) validation accuracy and 76.6% (95% confidence interval, 73.1-78.6) overall accuracy could classify normal and infected nurses. The neural network can help managers and policymakers determine which frontline health workers are most likely to be infected by COVID-19.